Familiar story, though my experience is from a motorhome setup rather than a garden office — the underlying physics is identical so worth sharing.
The main culprit most people overlook isn't actually the cold killing the battery directly, it's the combination of reduced solar harvest and increased load running simultaneously. Your panels might be producing 40-60% of their summer yield on a grey December day, whilst your heating, lighting, and any laptop/monitor draws are all climbing. That pincer movement absolutely hammers your state of charge.
A few things worth checking:
- Battery temperature — LiFePO4 cells (Fogstar Drift are popular for this) derate significantly below 5°C and most BMS units will cut charging entirely below 0°C. If your battery is in an uninsulated cabinet outside, that's your answer right there.
- Victron MPPT settings — if you're running absorption/float voltages tuned for summer, your controller may be undercharging during the shorter absorption windows winter allows.
- Parasitic loads — inverter standby draw, any always-on routers or monitoring kit adds up enormously when your daily harvest is marginal.
I added a small 40W panel specifically angled at 60° for winter sun on my van and it made a meaningful difference to those flat grey days. Same principle applies to a static install.
What chemistry are you running, and is the battery indoors or exposed to the elements? That'll probably point to the most likely cause fairly quickly.