Ran into exactly this with my cabin setup about 18 months ago. Partially disconnected from the grid thinking I'd slash my standing charges and consumption — ended up paying more for about four months straight.
The issue nobody really talks about is base load behaviour. When you're pulling some loads off-grid, you change your consumption pattern on the grid side, not just the volume. My supplier (Octopus at the time) had me on an Agile tariff and I was inadvertently missing the cheap overnight windows because my Victron system was handling overnight loads through my Fogstar Drift cells. So the grid draws I did make were clustered into peak periods. Bill went up roughly £40/month.
A few things worth checking if you're in the same boat:
- Export/import balance — if you're on a smart meter, your supplier can see exactly when you're drawing and may be tariff-matching you poorly
- Standing charge absorption — you're still paying it regardless, so if you've reduced consumption without reducing the charge tier, your cost-per-kWh efficiency tanks
- Inverter idle draw — my Multiplus was pulling a surprising amount just sitting there, which I was attributing to "off-grid" but still came from the grid overnight
It genuinely took me about three months of spreadsheet logging to untangle what was happening. Once I restructured which loads stayed grid-side and optimised the Agile slots properly, it corrected itself.
Anyone else found specific tariff structures that work better alongside a hybrid battery setup? Curious whether Intelligent Octopus handles this better than standard Agile for people with significant battery storage.