Anyone know if a 400W panel will keep up with a 12V compressor fridge over winter?

So I've been scratching my head over this one for a while. Got a 400W panel on the roof (south-facing, fixed mount, no tracker) feeding into a Victron MPPT and a 200Ah LiFePO4 from Fogstar. Running a 12V compressor fridge — it's a decent mid-size one, pulls maybe 4-5A when the compressor kicks in but obviously cycles on and off throughout the day.

Summer's been absolutely fine, no issues. But winter's coming and I'm starting to wonder if I've been naive about it.

From what I can work out, realistically I'm probably only getting 1-2 peak sun hours on a grim January day here in the UK, maybe 3 on a decent one. So that's what, 400-800Wh on a bad day? Meanwhile the fridge is probably chewing through 30-50Wh per hour depending on ambient temp and how full it is.

A few things I'm unsure about:

• Does a compressor fridge actually work harder in winter if it's in an unheated space? Or does cool ambient help it?
• Is my 200Ah battery enough buffer to get through 2-3 consecutive cloudy days?
• Would a second panel actually make a meaningful difference or am I better off looking at a small wind turbine as a complement?

Currently using it mainly for emergency backup at home so it's not critical if it dips low occasionally, but I'd rather not be cycling the battery too deep repeatedly.

Anyone run a similar setup through a UK winter? Would love some real-world numbers rather than the usual best-case-scenario stuff you see on YouTube.

@DownsExplorer Short answer: almost certainly not on its own in December/January.

Fixed south-facing in the UK you're realistically looking at 1-2 peak sun hours in winter, so that 400W panel might only yield 400-800Wh on a decent day. A 12V compressor fridge (assuming something like a 50L Dometic or similar) draws roughly 30-60Wh per hour depending on ambient temp — so 700-1440Wh daily.

The maths gets uncomfortable fast.

On my narrowboat I run a similar setup and I've had to supplement with:

• Shore power when moored up
• A DC-DC charger from the engine alternator
• Accepting the battery takes a hit over prolonged grey spells

Your 200Ah Fogstar gives you decent reserve, but you'll be cycling it hard without supplemental charging. I'd seriously look at adding a second panel if you've got roof space, or factor in regular engine/alternator top-ups.

What fridge model specifically?