The winter issue @OldSailor mentions is spot on. With 400W you're looking at maybe 800-1200Wh daily in December. I'd skip the kWh math entirely and instead ask: can you live on what the panels generate worst-case? If not, you need either more panels or grid backup. Battery size then becomes academic—size it for 2-3 days autonomy minimum. What's your actual winter load profile?
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