Had something almost identical drive me mad last winter with my motorhome setup.
Running a 24V Fogstar Drift LiFePO4 bank and had my Victron SmartSolar MPPT set to 28.8V absorption — but it kept flipping into absorption phase somewhere around 28.1–28.3V instead. Took me ages to work out what was going on.
Couple of things I eventually tracked down:
Temperature compensation — if you've got a VE.Smart network running with a battery temperature sensor, the MPPT will actively adjust charge voltages based on temp. Worth checking whether that's silently nudging your targets down.
BMS override — my Daly BMS was communicating via the VE.Direct port and essentially telling the MPPT to back off before hitting the configured ceiling. The MPPT obeys the BMS signal over your manual settings, which makes sense for protection but isn't obvious when you're staring at VictronConnect wondering why your settings are being ignored.
Also worth checking if you've got DVCC enabled in Venus OS (if you're running a Cerbo or similar). When DVCC is active, charge voltage control moves to the GX device, not the individual MPPT — so the values you've punched into the charger itself become largely decorative.
Have a look under Settings → DVCC and see whether a system-wide charge voltage limit is set lower than your MPPT target.
Anyone else seen this with non-Victron BMS units? Curious whether it's purely a communication protocol thing or something else going on at the hardware level.