Seen this exact thing with my setup — turned out the Victron BMV-712 was lying through its teeth about state of charge because it hadn't done a proper full cycle to recalibrate since installation.
A few things worth checking before you start panicking:
- Peukert's exponent — if it's misconfigured in your BMV settings, the SOC calculation goes properly sideways
- Parasitic drain — even with "barely any load," inverters on standby, Cerbo GX, and that one random USB charger you forgot about can collectively munch through more than you'd expect overnight
- Cell drift — BMS showing "nothing dodgy" doesn't mean individual cells aren't quietly drifting apart; worth pulling the actual cell voltages if your BMS gives you that data
- Temperature — been a cold snap lately? Lithium capacity drops noticeably once you're below about 5°C, which catches people out every autumn without fail
My money's on a calibration issue rather than anything physically wrong with the cells — Fogstar and Victron lithiums don't usually just decide to misbehave randomly without a reason showing somewhere in the logs.
Has anyone else on here had the Victron SmartShunt suddenly lose the plot after a firmware update? Mine went a bit peculiar after the last one and I'm wondering if that's more common than Victron let on.
What firmware version are you running?