Had the exact same drama on my narrowboat last summer — turned out my panels were getting a sneaky shadow from a bridge I'd moored under for three days without realising, felt like a proper idiot 🙄
A few things worth checking though:
- Temperature derating — afternoon sun bakes the controller itself, and if your Victron MPPT isn't got decent airflow it'll throttle back to protect itself. Mine was mounted inside a poorly ventilated box and was basically having a little lie-down every afternoon at 2pm.
- Battery voltage ceiling — if your bank is nearly full by afternoon (lucky you), the MPPT will naturally back off absorption/float. Looks like a dropout but it's just doing its job.
- PV voltage spikes — on a hot day, weirdly, VOC can shift enough to cause fits if you're right on the edge of your controller's input range.
What does the VictronConnect history actually show? The daily graphs are genuinely useful here — if you see a clean cliff-edge drop at the same time each day, shading is almost certainly your culprit. If it's erratic, I'd lean toward thermals or a dodgy MC4 connection.
Also worth checking whether anyone else on here with a shepherds hut setup has seen this — fixed roof installs seem to cop afternoon shading from tree lines more than you'd think.
What's your panel orientation and what MPPT model are you running?