Seen this exact behaviour with my SmartSolar 100/30 last winter up in Scotland — overcast days are basically a stress test for MPPT algorithms.
The short answer is: yes and no. Some dropout is completely normal when irradiance is dancing all over the place, but persistent dropout suggests something worth investigating.
A few things worth checking:
- Panel voltage at the controller input — on heavy overcast, are you actually getting above the minimum threshold to wake the MPPT? Victron units need a meaningful margin above battery voltage to engage properly
- Absorption voltage settings — if your battery is already sitting near full from yesterday, the controller will throttle right back and look like it's dropping out when it's actually just satisfied
- Wiring resistance — a marginal connection that's fine at peak output will show its ugly face under low-irradiance conditions when every watt counts
- Panel configuration — series vs parallel matters enormously on cloudy days. Series raises voltage (good for MPPT engagement), parallel raises current
The Victron Connect app is your best friend here. Pull up the live graphs on a dodgy day and watch what the input voltage and current are actually doing. If you're seeing the voltage collapsing, that's a panel/wiring issue. If the controller just isn't "waking up", check your absorption/float settings — Victron's defaults are sometimes oddly conservative depending on firmware version.
What panels and battery chemistry are you running? That'll change the diagnosis considerably. Lithium and lead-acid behave very differently when the sky turns British.